The New Season: Schrödinger's Team

It’s that time of year again, folks.   

Every year before the season starts, we are Schrödinger's Team:

§  Both Winners and Losers. 

§  Both National Champions and Last Ranked. 

§  Both Exhilarating and Excruciating.

Schrödinger's Team is not to be confused with Schrödinger's Cat, the Pet Cemetery Cat, Schrödinger's Scat (the former Texas men’s a capella group) or the 2005 Texas National Championship winning team.

Some of my thoughts about the upcoming season include:

Loathing:  

Speaking of the 2005 Texas National Championship Team.  Ugh USC.  In true homage to the Schrödinger's theme, last year’s game against USC was the saddest/happiest I’ve even been simultaneously, as well as the proudest/most disappointed.   

Offensive Curiosity:

I mean, why not.  It’s a new season.  We’ve named a starter (for the first game anyway) and for once I agree with Coach Herman that Sam Ehlinger should take the lead.  I’m hoping that we don’t continue the pattern of the last few years of playing not to lose (which didn’t work for Coach Strong, either) and put a little faith in the team, especially at QB.

I’m trying in my mind to let go of a few game changing mistakes Ehlinger made at some KEY points in some KEY games last year (USC, OU) and remember that a win or a loss should never come down to one play or one college kid’s mistakes.  You know, trying to be less of a horrible person…

Our O-Line has a combined 101 career starts (eeek).  I don’t know what’s happening at center (or has been for the last few years).  Our returning RB’s haven’t shown too much consistency, and we lost four of our top six receivers from last season.  Regardless, with lots of recruits and transfers taking the field at skill positions, there’s a lot to look forward to learning. 

Defensive Stress:

I’m just going to say it plainly, we’ve lost Malik, Poona & DeShon (who, to add injury to insult fractured his forearm this week in the NFL pre-season after leaving us early).  These player losses stress. Me. Out.

Fear:

For some reason, Texas is ranked 23^rd in the AP & 21^st in the Coaches Poll.  Maybe the coaches like that Herman “allegedly” gave it the old college try to get Urban Meyer fired (which, by the way, I old-school-x-files-want-to-believe he did, but don’t actually believe he did).

I think any ranking is a bit high for a team that’s barely (if even) been bowl eligible since Mack Brown “retired”.  I understand it’s easier to fall out of than crawl into the rankings and I should take what I get.  In my heart of hearts I’d rather crawl in this year…because you’ve gotta crawl before you strut.  In the words of 54b, if you just “Win Every Damn Game, Damnit”, then you’ll get up to where you need to be.  Coming in with a ranking means nothing, and I worry our players will think it means “something”.

Horror:

Texas has a frightening stretch of schedule from USC to Oklahoma.  It scares me that these games are stacked at the beginning of the season, but maybe it’s good to just find out what we’re made of right away.  Who knows? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Date	Opponent	Win Probability
9/1/2018	at Maryland	74%
9/8/2018	Tulsa	89%
9/15/2018	USC	46%
9/22/2018	TCU	52%
9/29/2018	at Kansas State	62%
10/6/2018	vs. Oklahoma	28%
10/13/2018	Baylor	68%
10/27/2018	at Oklahoma State	39%
11/3/2018	West Virginia	66%
11/10/2018	at Texas Tech	57%
11/17/2018	Iowa State	67%
11/23/2018	at Kansas	81%

This probability chart came from SB Nation, so take it for what you will.   The real WTF (What the Football) moment in this chart is that Texas has only an 81% chance of beating Kansas.  Sqwaaaaaak????  I don’t mean to be rude, but for Rock Chalk’s sake, this series is a bit lopsided.  

Kansas has won three games in as many years, including one winless season.  It’s very sad for me to admit that one of my darkest moments in fandom was the Longhorns being one of those defeats, so I know I sound like a real jerk, but I feel like that % should be in AT LEAST the mid 90%’s.  Sorry, not sorry.

 

Reservation:

Though he became coach during the The Extreme Blogging Hiatus: Addendum B, it’s no secret that I am having a little trouble getting on board with Coach Herman.  I HOPE he proves me wrong, I WANT him to prove me wrong.   I find him a bit snarky, and a bit arrogant without credence.  Listen, my Dad was a fighter pilot, so I appreciate a cocky attitude as much as anyone, but Herman just hasn’t shown me the goods yet. 

Personally, and in my amateur opinion, I don’t believe he’s mature enough to lead a team of young men at this level.  In my observation, he wants the respect of a coach, but wants to act like a peer.   I think he’s got some growing up to do, I think he needs to work on his grudge holding & punishment doling, and I think he needs to put some distance between himself and the players. Mostly, I hope hope hope this is the year he makes it to the grown-ups table.

Concern: 
Let’s be real.  Michael Dickson is gone.  Remember last year when Texas played Missouri?   He punted the ball inside the Mizzou 10 four out of 11 times.  Let’s recap:

§  34 yards to the 4

§  58 yards to the 10

§  48 yards to the 2

§  33 yards to the 3

The remaining punts were all within the 20.  ZERO touchbacks.  He averaged 41.1 yards per punt. 

We’ve had many sad, dismal kicking seasons (I’m talking to you Fera) since our several seasons of kicking glory (the holy trinity of Lawrence, Mangum, Tucker).  I don’t know what is going to happen now that Dickson is gone.  As of press time (haha, it’s a blog, press time is when I "press" the publish button) we still haven’t named a starter.   And I swear on all that is holy if we miss more than 3% of EXTRA POINTS this season I will lose my mind.

Pride:

Several Longhorns are starting out the season on award watch lists:

Potential Award	Player	Position	Year
Rimington Trophy	Zach Shackelford	C	JR
Chuck Bednarik Award	Breckyn Hager	DE	SR
	Gary Johnson	LB	SR
Fred Biletnikoff Award	Collin Johnson	WR	JR
John Mackey Award	Andrew Beck	TE	SR
Butkus Award	Gary Johnson	LB	SR
Jim Thorpe Award	Kris Boyd	DB	SR
Bronko Nagurski Trophy	Kris Boyd	DB	SR
Outland Trophy	Patrick Vahe	OL	SR
Wuerffel Trophy	Collin Johnson	WR	JR
Walter Camp Award	Collin Johnson	WR	JR
Ted Hendricks Award	Breckyn Hager	DE	SR
Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award	Collin Johnson	WR	JR

In Conclusion:

Here we sit for four more days until we have a few answers.  In the meantime I have a little wish list:

§  I’d like a win.

§  I’d like to end the weekend still in the polls, but even an unconvincing win doesn’t guarantee that.  

§  I’d like to see a little heart. 

§  I’d like to see a little teamwork.

§  I’d like to see a little excitement on the field. 

§  I’d like to see the players respecting themselves and one another as they grow into young men. 

§  I’d like a national championship….

… is all that too much to ask?